Tobias Nowacki

Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at Stanford


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I am a Senior Data Scientist at Deliveroo, using state-of-the-art causal inference and statistical methods to support business decisions, product rollouts and improve consumer decisions. Previously, I worked as an Applied Intern at Uber. I specialise in estimating treatment effects and other metrics in experiments and developing alternative models where straightforward A/B experimentation is not possible.

I hold a PhD in Political Science from Stanford University. In my research, I am broadly interested in the political economy of elections. In particular, my research investigates how electoral institutions shape legislative behaviour, political party organisation, and accountability towards voters. To that end, I use and develop new quantitative and causal inference methods. I work(ed) with Gary Cox, Jens Hainmueller, Andy Hall, and Andy Eggers. I am also a Graduate Student Affiliate at the Democracy and Polarization Lab.

Prior to coming to Stanford, I was a DPhil Student at Oxford University (Nuffield College). I hold a BA in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) from Warwick University, and a MSc in Politics Research from Oxford University (St. Cross College).

You can find my CV here.


Peer-Reviewed Publications

  1. Susceptibility to Strategic Voting: A Comparison of Plurality and Instant-Runoff Elections.
    with Andy Eggers.
    Accepted, Journal of Politics.

  2. The Emergence of Party-Based Political Careers in the UK, 1801-1918
    with Gary Cox.
    2023, Journal of Politics 85(1). [code + data]

  3. How Did Absentee Voting Affect the 2020 U.S. Election?
    with Jesse Yoder, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Andrew Myers, Daniel M. Thompson, Jennifer A. Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, and Andrew B. Hall.
    2021, Science Advances 7(52). [code + data]

Working Papers

  1. The Gender Gap in Political Careers Under Proportional Representation.
    Invited to Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Politics.

  2. How Much Do Elections Increase Police Responsiveness? Evidence From Elected Police Commissioners.
    with Daniel M. Thompson.

  3. Effect Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Regression Discontinuty Designs: Introducing the Moderation-in-Discontinuities Framework
    with Kirk Bansak.

  4. Are Dead People Voting By Mail? Evidence From Washington State Administrative Records.
    with Jennifer A. Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Andrew Myers, Daniel M. Thompson, and Andrew B. Hall.

In Progress


Teaching Materials

Stanford (Lectures)

Stanford (TA for Graduate Classes)

Stanford (TA for Undergraduate Classes)