Tobias Nowacki

Ph.D. (Stanford), Senior Data Scientist


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I hold a PhD in Political Science from Stanford University. My research sits at the intersection of political economy and comparative politics and studies how elections shape representation. In particular, I examine how electoral rules and institutions affect political careers, party organization and voter behaviour. To study these questions, I apply and extend computational and causal inference methods to newly collected data on elections and local governments across Europe.

My work has been published in the Journal of Politics and Science Advances. I work(ed) with Gary Cox, Jens Hainmueller, Andy Hall, and Andy Eggers. During my time at Stanford, I was also a Graduate Student Affiliate at the Democracy and Polarization Lab and repeatedly served as TA for classes in quantitative methodology and comparative politics.

I currently work as a Senior Data Scientist at Deliveroo, where I use state-of-the-art causal inference and statistical methods to support business decisions, product rollouts and improve consumer experiences. Previously, I worked as an Applied Scientist PhD Intern at Uber. I specialise in estimating treatment effects and other quantities in experiments and developing alternative methods where straightforward A/B experimentation is not possible or underpowered.

Prior to coming to Stanford, I was a DPhil Student at Oxford University (Nuffield College). I hold a first-class honours BA in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) from Warwick University, and a MSc in Politics Research (with distinction) from the University of Oxford (St. Cross College).

You can find my CV here.


Peer-Reviewed Publications

  1. The Gender Gap in Political Careers Under Proportional Representation.
    Conditionally Accepted, Journal of Politics. [code + data]

  2. Susceptibility to Strategic Voting: A Comparison of Plurality and Instant-Runoff Elections.
    with Andy Eggers.
    Forthcoming, Journal of Politics. [code + data]

  3. The Emergence of Party-Based Political Careers in the UK, 1801-1918
    with Gary Cox.
    2023, Journal of Politics 85(1). [code + data]

  4. How Did Absentee Voting Affect the 2020 U.S. Election?
    with Jesse Yoder, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Andrew Myers, Daniel M. Thompson, Jennifer A. Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, and Andrew B. Hall.
    2021, Science Advances 7(52). [code + data]

Working Papers

  1. How Much Do Elections Increase Police Responsiveness? Evidence From Elected Police Commissioners.
    with Daniel M. Thompson.

  2. Effect Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Regression Discontinuity Designs: Introducing the Moderation-in-Discontinuities Framework
    with Kirk Bansak. old WP version

  3. Are Dead People Voting By Mail? Evidence From Washington State Administrative Records.
    with Jennifer A. Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Andrew Myers, Daniel M. Thompson, and Andrew B. Hall.

In Progress


Teaching Materials

Stanford (Lectures)

Stanford (TA for Graduate Classes)

Stanford (TA for Undergraduate Classes)